Missouri's Amendment 3 abortion-rights repeal splits likely voters 43% to 43%, according to a new poll that underscores how close the Nov. 3 contest has become.

The Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group survey, conducted Oct. 14-15 among 684 likely voters, found 14% remain undecided before the Nov. 3 election. Neither side leads in the poll. KSDK political editor Mark Maxwell posted the results on X on Friday, Oct. 16.

What Amendment 3 Would Do

Amendment 3, placed on the ballot by Republican lawmakers, would repeal the abortion-rights amendment Missouri voters approved in November 2024 with 51.6% of the vote. It would replace those protections with a near-total abortion ban, allowing exceptions only for medical emergencies, fatal fetal anomalies and for survivors of rape or incest who end a pregnancy within the first 12 weeks, according to Fox 2.

The measure also would constitutionally prohibit gender-transition procedures for minors. State law already restricts these treatments, but a restriction on cross-sex hormones and puberty blockers is set to expire in August 2027, according to the Missouri Independent.

A Trend of Tight Numbers

The dead heat mirrors earlier polling. An August SLU/YouGov survey of 900 likely voters found 43% supported the repeal and 44% opposed it, with 13% unsure, the Missouri Independent reported. That poll had a margin of error of roughly 4 percentage points.

The gap has narrowed sharply. A February SLU/YouGov poll showed an 11-point margin favoring the amendment, with 50% planning to vote yes and 39% planning to vote no.

Steven Rogers, a professor of political science at Saint Louis University who directs the SLU/YouGov Poll, told the Missouri Independent in September that the August results pointed to increasing discontent with those in power.

"If that carries over into November, then this Amendment 3 may fail," Rogers said in the September interview.

Money and Divisions

The campaign to defeat Amendment 3, called Stop the Ban, had raised about $13 million as of late September, according to Missouri Ethics Commission data reported by the Missouri Independent. Her Health, Her Future, the campaign backing the repeal, had raised more than $1.8 million.

The fundraising gap is not the only challenge for repeal supporters. Some anti-abortion conservatives have argued Amendment 3 does not go far enough because it includes exceptions for rape and incest, according to the Missouri Independent. That internal divide could cost votes in a race this close.

A campaign manager for Her Health Her Future told the Missouri Independent in late September that the fracture is overblown, saying the campaign expects "a pretty strong coalition when we move into the ballot box on Nov. 3."

What's Next

Polling places open at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3. No-excuse, in-person absentee voting began Tuesday, Oct. 20. Voters can check their polling place through the Missouri Secretary of State's website.