Federal immigration restrictions could mean 9,000 to 16,000 fewer new businesses launched per year in the U.S. by the early 2030s, according to a Yale Budget Lab study reported by St. Louis Magazine on Monday, July 14.

The restrictions span several federal programs. The Trump administration imposed a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa petitions, though a federal judge in Massachusetts struck it down on June 8, calling it an unauthorized tax. The administration has appealed. The annual H-1B lottery was also overhauled to award visas by wage level rather than random selection, favoring higher-paid applicants over startup founders and early-career workers. Employment-based EB-2 green cards for Indian applicants are unavailable through September 30. The Department of Labor has proposed raising wage floors for H-1B workers and tightening the PERM labor certification process that businesses must clear before sponsoring a foreign worker for a green card. Separately, the administration has proposed eliminating some EB-5 investor visa pathways used by foreign entrepreneurs to obtain residency through investment.

Together, these changes make it harder and more expensive for immigrant entrepreneurs to launch or grow businesses in the U.S. The Yale study found immigrants are 80 percent more likely to start a business than native-born Americans. That gap matters regionally: the St. Louis metro area has more than 11,000 immigrant entrepreneurs, according to the St. Louis Mosaic Project.

"Immigrants are an economic necessity, and part of what's going to continue to help the region grow," Suzanne Sierra, the Mosaic Project's executive director, told St. Louis Magazine.

The 15-county St. Louis metro has seen a 28 percent decline in births since 2007. A January 2026 Congressional Budget Office report projects that by 2030, all U.S. population growth will come from international migration, according to Saint Louis University demography professor Ness Sandoval.

Chesterfield is home to more than 2,300 businesses and 75,000 employees, according to the Chesterfield Regional Chamber of Commerce. Neither the Chamber nor local employers have commented on the study's implications for the valley's workforce pipeline.